with lower respiratory infections each winter. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.Ĭould the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. STAT Reports: STAT’s guide to interpreting clinical trial results Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases - a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection - than the general population. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data - there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew - the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher. The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror - and are meaningless. This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Exclusive analysis of biotech, pharma, and the life sciences Learn More
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